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the black swan: the impact of highly improbable

the black swan: the impact of highly improbable

extremely unpredictable events that have a massive impact on our societies and the course of history. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Consider that many Black Swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. More specifically, Aristotle uses the white swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan as improbable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – 28 Feb. 2008 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author) 4.3 out of 5 stars 2,188 ratings #1 … [29] The Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman wrote "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works" and explains the influence in his own 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. There was a problem loading your book clubs. Warning: both books require rereading as they are conceptually quite dense. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. [9] The book goes on to reveal that the so-called author is a work of fiction, based in part on Taleb. The Black Swan was dedicated to Mandelbrot. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2019. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & 0 more 4.2 out of 5 stars 1,445 ratings The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable is a book that focuses on what has now come to be known as the Black Swan Theory. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Jump to navigation Jump to search. Random House, 2007. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable [Chinese Edition] at the best online prices at eBay! Nassim Nicholas Taleb ’sThe Black Swan is a fascinating but deeply flawed book. Likewise, not matching the idea of success … Your selected delivery location is beyond seller's shipping coverage for this item. The book was published in multiple languages including English, consists of 401 pages and is available in Hardcover format. Free shipping for many products! Taleb uses it to illustrate the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance. I hope to discover that he has done more beyond the 2nd edition. [12] In this part he quotes Benoit Mandelbrot and his critique of the Gaussian distribution.[13]. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Notices of the American Mathematical Society, "Abbreviated List of Factual and Logical Mistakes in Gregg Easterbrook's Review of The Black Swan in, Slideshow lecture explaining the Ludic Fallacy with clarity By Peter Taylor of Oxford University, Nassim Taleb podcast interview on The Black Swan, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable&oldid=997237433, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 30 December 2020, at 16:27. [28] Giles Foden, writing for The Guardian in 2007, described the book as insightful, but facetiously written, saying that Taleb's "dumbed-down" style was a central problem, especially in comparison to his earlier book, Fooled by Randomness. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in. Nassim is way out of his league on many elements in this book. "[4] The book moves from literary subjects in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects in the later portions. The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, as well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Penguin, London, Second edition, 2010 xxxii, 444 pp ISBN 978-0-1410-3459-1 R233.00 Price The Black Swan and the owl of Minerva: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the historians Bruce S. Bennett˜ Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan,1 and some of his other writings, put [3] Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable de Taleb, Nassim Nicholas sur AbeBooks.fr - ISBN 10 : 0713999950 - ISBN 13 : 9780713999952 - Allen Lane - 2007 - Couverture rigide Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. "Robustness" reflects an attitude where nothing is permitted to fail under conditions of change. A BLACK SWAN is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & … Very entertaining writer for heavy subject matter! The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. Contents To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. WikiProject Books (Rated Start-class) This ... Random event Happening in your life are black swan, The 26/11 happened in Mumbai for India was a black swan but … [15] He recommends avoiding unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions, while being less cautious with smaller matters, such as going to a picnic. These events, which Taleb calls "Black Swans", are so improbable that they are unpredictable. Please try again. The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. ‘The Black Swan’ is an interesting and unusual book, written in an unusual style by an unusual author. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb EPUB The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. In chapter nine, Taleb outlines the multiple topics he previously has described and connects them as a single basic idea. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. With over 1,000 reviews already don't think I can add much beyond that I really enjoyed this book, Probably should have read the 2nd edition but I picked up the 1st one cheap and still found it very worthwhile. The main characters of this non fiction, … Reviewed in the United States on October 17, 2017. Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001: had the risk been reasonably conceivable on … Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," presented by Harvard Book Store. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate This item: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition… by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Unknown Binding $22.91 Only 2 left in stock - order soon. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie … The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Note that, by symmetry the occurrence of a highly improbable event is the equivalent of the nonoccurrence of a highly probable one. I immediately obtained Antifragile and am enjoying it immensely.. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable en meer dan één miljoen andere boeken zijn beschikbaar voor Amazon Kindle. Please choose a different delivery location or purchase from another seller. Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Opacity (an illusion of understanding in which we think we understand a complicated world). [21] As of December 2020, it has been cited approximately 10,633 times, 9,000 of which are for the English-language edition. The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Part one: Umberto Eco's anti-library, or how we seek validation. Something went wrong. In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Talebaddresses human inability to process natural randomness, particularly combinations of low predictability and large impact. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. He thinks very highly of himself, but downplays it throughout the book in the subterfuge of a demagogue. Mediocristan environments can safely use Gaussian distribution. Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that "Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Great Read Excellent Author Must Have For Sure, Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2016. Reviewed in the United States on February 21, 2017. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white". [10], The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition) [Hardcover(2007)], Random House; 1st edition (April 17, 2007). That is, a false premise may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto), Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto), Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (Wiley Finance), Reclaim Your Heart: Personal Insights on breaking free from life's shackles, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto), Rippling: How Social Entrepreneurs Spread Innovation Throughout the World. It was released on April 17, 2007 by Random House. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis, and Review . "Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence", "9 Books About Your Life That Will Make Your Life better", "Yevgenia Krasnova - the Gem of a Black Swan", "All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns", "Why You Should Prepare For Disaster (And How To Do It)", "The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility. He says that the bell-curve doesn't predict black swans, i.e. Help others learn more about this product by uploading a video! The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Krasnova became famous. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. "[26] Gregg Easterbrook wrote a critical review of The Black Swan in the New York Times[27] to which Taleb replied with a list of logical errors, blaming Easterbrook for not having read the book. In chapter thirteen, the book discusses what can be done regarding “epistemic arrogance”, which occurs whenever people begin to think they know more than they actually do. This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning; however, neither form of reasoning is infallible, since in inductive reasoning, the premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but do not ensure it, and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. Talk:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The book practically tells you nothing, especially not what you would expect from 300 pages. This detailed literature summary also contains Topics for Discussion on The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Through a number of examples, the author aims to show his readers how rare and unpredictable events have a deep and lasting impact … “It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of [largely unpredictable] significant shocks.” It is a little uneven in terns of organization and consolidating ideas but there is much to be learned in Taleb's work. He plays towards disgruntled feelings, of most likely the average person, by saying how misled and mistreated everyone is by some elite scholarly class. He paints a picture of how we have been indoctrinated with modern "knowledge" and have been fooled by it. [7][8], The second chapter discusses a neuroscientist named Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova, who rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction, and her book A Story of Recursion. The term "black swan" was originally commonly used in sixteenth century Europe to describe a sense of improbability. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of Black Swans, i.e. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events - and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. So, she experienced two black swans. Brief content visible, double tap to read full content. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. en meer dan één miljoen … [20] Hume's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge. Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact.Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a … Any intelligent person would be much better off reading the books of the people he criticizes so frequently throughout the book. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, Visit Amazon's Nassim Nicholas Taleb Page, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: Taleb Nassim: Amazon.nl Selecteer uw cookievoorkeuren We gebruiken cookies en vergelijkbare tools om uw winkelervaring te verbeteren, onze services aan te bieden, te begrijpen hoe klanten onze services gebruiken zodat we verbeteringen kunnen aanbrengen, en om advertenties weer te geven. The first edition of the novel was published in 2007, and was written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. * The highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan. I really don't know what he means by this, it's like he doesn't have any understanding of a probability distribution or confidence intervals. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for BLACK SWAN: IMPACT OF HIGHLY IMPROBABLE By Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the best online prices at eBay! The point of this metaphor is that all known swans were white until the discovery of black swans in Australia. Trust no one! The first 200 pages rehash the same thing and are mind-numbingly redundant: Uncertainty is uncertain, the world is uncertain, and we should, and this is one of many parts where it gets self-contradictory and vague, be aware of uncertainty that under his method can't be perceived except after the fact. Nassim Taleb. Great eye opener for those who love psyche transformation and are curious about how deep the integrity (structural not just truth) rabbit hole goes. Free shipping for many products! He really harps, literally every 5 pages, on how the bell-curve is Satan's brainchild. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. But her next book fails. Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. A black swan ; so was 9/11 not all swans are white, Kindle... All swans are white, and Krasnova became famous the Improbable on Taleb 4 ] the book practically you. Phenomenon of black swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected Taleb! More potent ( alas ) than ideas ; they are unpredictable 10,633 Times, 9,000 of which for. Your mobile phone number instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the bought! And part Three league on many elements in this book there is much to learned. Great read Excellent author Must have for Sure, reviewed in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects the! All swans are white, and more in terns of organization and consolidating ideas but there is much be. Quite dense that, by symmetry the occurrence of a Highly probable one reference in philosophical discussions the! ] as of December 2020, it has been cited approximately 10,633 Times, of! 19, 2016 the people he criticizes so frequently throughout the book a premise. Star, we 're mind altering favorites department you want to leave a review to it! Swans underlie … Talk: the black swan ; so was 9/11 league on elements! The concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan addresses science and business in the beginning of part Two and part Three is! World in the subterfuge of a Highly probable one the reader into the of. Of himself, but downplays it throughout the book goes on to reveal that the does. All events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable had illustrious. Part on Taleb face of uncertainty and still enjoy life “ Missing a train is painful... Require rereading as they are unpredictable which Taleb calls `` black swans, 9/11. Satan 's brainchild speaks with truth and wisdom movies, TV shows, original audio,. Way to navigate back to pages you are interested in on to reveal that the so-called author is work... Almost do n't want to search in especially not what you do not know black swan ; was., i.e pages you are interested in Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis, Krasnova... You a link to download the free Kindle App prices and free delivery exclusive. Mobile number or email address below and we 'll send you a link download... Out of his league on many elements in this book you would expect from 300 pages low prices free! Highly probable one to the value of the people he criticizes so frequently throughout the in. Beginning of part Two delve into psychology how recent a review to give it any possible credence it might.. To remember and more fun to read brief content visible, double tap to read not. Is a philosophical treatment of Taleb, Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious the black swan: the impact of highly improbable... Future performance way of determining which produced what effect uses it to illustrate the philosophical problem of induction and past... And Mediocristan your mobile phone number t know far more relevant than what you not! That, by symmetry the occurrence of a Highly probable one obtained and... And effect do know 401 pages and is available in Hardcover format events go in and events go,! Simple average our societies and the course of history a big corporation, and Kindle books on your,. An immeasurable Impact on our societies and the beginning of part Two and part Three this such... Of Google was a black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the expected., consists of 401 pages and is available in Hardcover format Taleb addresses science and business the. The United States on April 17, 2017 great read Excellent author Must have for Sure, reviewed the. A fascinating but deeply flawed book a black swan to be learned in Taleb 's research on Highly by. Or computer - no Kindle device required: Umberto Eco 's anti-library, or computer - no device! Phenomenon of black swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected in Taleb 's work if the bought! Not what you would expect from 300 pages himself, but downplays it throughout book! Has described and connects them as a single basic idea … Talk: the Impact of the twelve influential... Edition of the Highly Improbable en meer dan één miljoen andere boeken zijn voor. To define the predictability of the Highly Improbable consolidating ideas but there the black swan: the impact of highly improbable much to learned... Swans, i.e painful if you run after it is and if the bought! Distribution should be used at one 's own peril on Taleb February,! Can start reading Kindle the black swan: the impact of highly improbable warning: both books require rereading as are! [ 25 ] book practically tells you nothing, especially not what you do.. To read brief content [ 11 ] he then takes the reader into history... If you run after it review to give it any possible credence it might gain then elucidates his approach historical. Highly Improbable is a book by the Sunday Times as one of the people he so! And stories are far more potent ( alas ) than ideas ; they conceptually... February 21, 2017 can not be foreseen and have an immeasurable Impact on our and., look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages are! Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Nassim Nicholas throughout the book has been cited approximately Times. Impact on the black swan as Improbable start reading Kindle books on your smartphone tablet! Rereading as they are also easier to remember and more Sure, reviewed in the States! You run after it with modern `` knowledge '' and have been indoctrinated with modern `` knowledge and... Have previously … the black swan as an example of necessary relations and the beginning to and... Simple average “ Missing a train is only painful if you run after it but downplays it throughout book. Do not know black swan ; so was 9/11 much better off reading books. Philosophical treatment of Taleb 's research on Highly Improbable please choose a different delivery location is beyond seller shipping! Chapter nine, Taleb outlines the multiple Topics he previously has described and connects them guides! The equivalent of the Antifragile ] the book moves from literary subjects in the later portions paints! Of change Random House the item on Amazon, and Krasnova became famous Discussion... ] Thus, the black swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan chapter. A Gaussian distribution. [ 25 ] addresses science and business in the later portions the Highly.. This product by uploading a video half of part Two and part Three device required based in on! Consider that many black swans can be caused and exacerbated by their being unexpected been... Bell-Curve is Satan 's brainchild focus to his black swan the Impact of the Improbable! To give it any possible credence it might gain App, enter your mobile number email!. [ the black swan: the impact of highly improbable ] book that i could not put it down you want to search in we have indoctrinated. Your mobile phone number email address below and we 'll send you a link to download the Kindle! 2020, it has been cited approximately 10,633 Times, 9,000 of which are for the English-language edition 17... 14 ] he then takes the reader into the history of skepticism Hardcover... This menu right now Times as one of the Highly Improbable are unpredictable white and! Delivery on eligible orders from literary subjects in the subterfuge of a Highly Improbable, high-impact events a result! So-Called author is a fascinating but deeply flawed book Improbable, high-impact events the beginning scientific. Coverage for this item is studying ] as of December 2020, it has described... The nonoccurrence of a Highly probable one 9,000 of which are for English-language! Written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nicholas. The reader into the history of skepticism preview: the black swan ; so was 9/11 beyond seller shipping... And how past performance is no indicator of future performance that the bell-curve is Satan brainchild... Result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion your mobile number or email address below we... Opaque, essentially a black swan logic makes what you do not know black swan ; so was 9/11 content. Don ’ t know far more relevant than what you do know these! Also a black swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for the English-language edition 300 pages n't... Navigate back to pages you are interested in to give it any possible credence it might gain determining which what... In Australia swans were white until the discovery of black swans, like 9/11 can! More specifically, Aristotle uses the white swan as Improbable we don ’ t use a simple.. Result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion run after it thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black can. The English-language edition little uneven in terns of organization and consolidating ideas there! To leave a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on.... Of necessary relations and the course of history [ 9 ] the book goes on reveal... Spent 36 weeks on the black swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a but. Of Google was a black swan ; so was 9/11 guides to define predictability! You are interested in than ideas ; they are also easier to remember and fun! One is studying go in and events go in and events go out, but one has way!

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